Qualification · Qualification 76

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

245.14 – 83.58

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

129 – 179

Prediction missed · off by 105.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 474.3 ±12.2

4068Bearbotics

Season APEX 160.2Event APEX 104.25Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

159Alpine Robotics

Season APEX 69.9Event APEX 11.21Rank 55Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 129.68Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 289.3 ±11.7

10333Elevation

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 16.43Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11025Garage Gang

Season APEX 55Event APEX 11.71Rank 39Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2443Blue Thunder

Season APEX 160.1Event APEX 55.44Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4068, 159, 2486

/ 100 compat

Projected

245.1 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4068, 159, 2486

Auto

56.8 23%

Teleop

134.9 55%

Endgame

51.7 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 10333, 11025, 2443

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.6 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10333, 11025, 2443

Auto

21.3 24%

Teleop

35.7 41%

Endgame

30.6 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.47 · Blue 0.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score245.1pts

Blue projected score83.6pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 161.6
Score range: 50–279
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 308 vs event baseline 189.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

474.3Season APEX289.3

56.8Auto21.3

134.9Teleop35.7

51.7Endgame30.6

74Consistency94

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	24
teleop	61	72
endgame	10	68
foul	5	15
total	129	179

Result

Final score

129 – 179

Prediction missed · off by 105.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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