Qualification · Qualification 75

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

261.34 – 193.21

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

432 – 197

Prediction correct · off by 87.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 499 ±11.7

11220The Royal Guard

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 36.93Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4499The Highlanders

A+

Season APEX 301.1Event APEX 181.79Rank 4Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4418IMPULSE

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 42.62Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 348.7 ±14.5

2945Steel Mustangs

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX 57.04Rank 36Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2036Boulder Valley Black Knights

Season APEX 121.1Event APEX 35.12Rank 28Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

7725PrepaTec - NUTS & VOLTS

Season APEX 123.9Event APEX 101.05Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11220, 4499, 4418

/ 100 compat

Projected

261.3 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 11220, 4499, 4418

Auto

65.8 25%

Teleop

133.5 52%

Endgame

58.9 23%

Strengths

· 4499 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 2945, 2036, 7725

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.2 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2945, 2036, 7725

Auto

29.4 15%

Teleop

95.7 49%

Endgame

68.8 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.2 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score261.3pts

Blue projected score193.2pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 68.1
Score range: 159–295
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 629 vs event baseline 187.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

499Season APEX348.7

65.8Auto29.4

133.5Teleop95.7

58.9Endgame68.8

0Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	92	50
teleop	261	75
endgame	79	72
foul	0	0
total	432	197

Result

Final score

432 – 197

Prediction correct · off by 87.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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