Qualification · Qualification 74
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
177.47 – 151.36
58%42%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
170 – 254
Prediction missed · off by 55.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 323.9 ±16.5
Season APEX 134.6Event APEX 95.46Rank 22Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
1303WYOHAZARD
Provisional
Season APEX 68.7Event APEX 7.49Rank 43Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73
Season APEX 120.6Event APEX 74.52Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 95
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 366 ±14.5
Season APEX 213.9Event APEX 141.09Rank 2Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 76.8Event APEX 1.29Rank 46Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89
Season APEX 75.3Event APEX 8.98Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9301, 1303, 662
57
/ 100 compatProjected
177.5 pts
~1.8 RP (regional)
Teams: 9301, 1303, 662
Auto
27.3 17%
Teleop
98.9 62%
Endgame
34.5 21%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 57%
Supercharged: 6%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 2240, 10682, 8334
56
/ 100 compatProjected
151.4 pts
~1.6 RP (regional)
Teams: 2240, 10682, 8334
Auto
48.8 32%
Teleop
82.2 53%
Endgame
23.7 15%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 57%
Supercharged: 6%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.81 · Blue 1.63
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score177.5pts
Blue projected score151.4pts
Red win probability58%
Event bonus sample196alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 57%, blue 74%
Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 26.1
- Score range
- 117–211
- Upset likelihood
- 42%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
323.9Season APEX366
27.3Auto48.8
98.9Teleop82.2
34.5Endgame23.7
8Consistency72
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 21 | 80 |
| teleop | 106 | 111 |
| endgame | 43 | 63 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 170 | 254 |
Result
Final score
170 – 254
Prediction missed · off by 55.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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