Qualification · Qualification 73

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

255.74 – 160.42

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

130 – 274

Prediction missed · off by 119.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 536.2 ±15.5

22591/4 Twenties

Provisional

Season APEX 70Event APEX -9.07Rank 47Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

4593Rapid Acceleration

Season APEX 228.9Event APEX 152Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3354PrepaTec - TecDroid

Season APEX 237.3Event APEX 112.81Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 303.6 ±13.4

3200Raptacon

Season APEX 75.1Event APEX 26.25Rank 38Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2465KauaiBots

Season APEX 90Event APEX 35.25Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1339Angelbotics

Season APEX 138.5Event APEX 98.92Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2259, 4593, 3354

/ 100 compat

Projected

255.7 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2259, 4593, 3354

Auto

42.0 17%

Teleop

163.4 65%

Endgame

46.6 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3200, 2465, 1339

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.4 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3200, 2465, 1339

Auto

53.0 34%

Teleop

67.0 43%

Endgame

34.1 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.22 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score255.7pts

Blue projected score160.4pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 95.3
Score range: 126–290
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 404 vs event baseline 187.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

536.2Season APEX303.6

42Auto53

163.4Teleop67

46.6Endgame34.1

19Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	55
teleop	72	101
endgame	32	43
foul	0	75
total	130	274

Result

Final score

130 – 274

Prediction missed · off by 119.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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