Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

147.63 – 292.61

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

86 – 232

Prediction correct · off by 61.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 339.9 ±16

6652Tigres

Season APEX 150.4Event APEX 36.17Rank 17Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9586Denbot

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 87.05Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10686Central Park Nightbots

Provisional

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 24.41Rank 52Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 489.4 ±11.7

3729The Raiders

Season APEX 103.5Event APEX 24.7Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 197.54Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7546Prepa Tec - MinerZ

Season APEX 150Event APEX 70.37Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6652, 9586, 10686

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.6 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 6652, 9586, 10686

Auto

54.2 35%

Teleop

79.0 52%

Endgame

19.5 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3729, 118, 7546

/ 100 compat

Projected

292.6 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3729, 118, 7546

Auto

48.5 17%

Teleop

162.7 56%

Endgame

79.7 27%

Strengths

· 118 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.84 · Blue 2.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score147.6pts

Blue projected score292.6pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 75%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -145
Score range: 114–327
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 318 vs event baseline 187.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

339.9Season APEX489.4

54.2Auto48.5

79Teleop162.7

19.5Endgame79.7

48Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	50
teleop	45	114
endgame	25	68
foul	0	0
total	86	232

Result

Final score

86 – 232

Prediction correct · off by 61.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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