Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

72.24 – 34.8

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

97 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 14.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 259.4 ±16.5

1410The Kraken

Season APEX 104.8Event APEX 49.28Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5526Type C - Peñoles

Season APEX 77.4Event APEX 45.15Rank 45Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

1799Wired-Up!

Provisional

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX -22.19Rank 42Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 245 ±19.4

9552Rambotics

Provisional

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 20.6Rank 44Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

7479Cardinal Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 61Event APEX 8.17Rank 48Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

159Alpine Robotics

Season APEX 69.9Event APEX 6.03Rank 55Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1410, 5526, 1799

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.2 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 1410, 5526, 1799

Auto

16.9 26%

Teleop

29.0 45%

Endgame

18.8 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9552, 7479, 159

/ 100 compat

Projected

34.8 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9552, 7479, 159

Auto

31.2 85%

Teleop

-11.2 0%

Endgame

16.5 45%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score72.2pts

Blue projected score34.8pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 37.4
Score range: 1–106
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 136 vs event baseline 188.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

259.4Season APEX245

16.9Auto31.2

29Teleop-11.2

18.8Endgame16.5

32Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	26
teleop	45	6
endgame	20	2
foul	5	5
total	97	39

Result

Final score

97 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 14.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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