Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

230.75 – 206.66

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

156 – 278

Prediction missed · off by 73 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 393 ±12.2

4418IMPULSE

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 53.01Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7421PrepaTec - OVERTURE

Season APEX 205.1Event APEX 149.98Rank 12Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5493SMAbotics

Season APEX 88.4Event APEX 27.76Rank 37Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 464 ±15.2

4499The Highlanders

A+

Season APEX 301.1Event APEX 174.26Rank 4Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2261Casa Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 88.7Event APEX 11.21Rank 20Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10333Elevation

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 21.19Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4418, 7421, 5493

/ 100 compat

Projected

230.7 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4418, 7421, 5493

Auto

34.2 16%

Teleop

130.6 62%

Endgame

44.8 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 4499, 2261, 10333

/ 100 compat

Projected

206.7 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4499, 2261, 10333

Auto

61.2 31%

Teleop

82.1 42%

Endgame

51.6 26%

Strengths

· 4499 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.9 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score230.7pts

Blue projected score206.7pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24.1
Score range: 173–265
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 434 vs event baseline 188.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

393Season APEX464

34.2Auto61.2

130.6Teleop82.1

44.8Endgame51.6

50Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	74
teleop	73	146
endgame	37	58
foul	15	0
total	156	278

Result

Final score

156 – 278

Prediction missed · off by 73 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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