Qualification · Qualification 62
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
27.64 – 176.4
14%86%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
172 – 151
Prediction missed · off by 84.9 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 278.4 ±13.9
Season APEX 88.4Event APEX 10.06Rank 37Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94
Season APEX 69.4Event APEX -26.98Rank 50Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94
Season APEX 120.6Event APEX 44.56Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 95
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 452.8 ±15.6
Season APEX 138.3Event APEX 74.55Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
1799Wired-Up!
Provisional
Season APEX 77.2Event APEX -17.57Rank 42Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74
Season APEX 237.3Event APEX 119.42Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5493, 3807, 662
10
/ 100 compatProjected
27.6 pts
~0.9 RP (regional)
Teams: 5493, 3807, 662
Auto
16.4 77%
Teleop
8.6 41%
Endgame
-3.8 0%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 57%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3648, 1799, 3354
60
/ 100 compatProjected
176.4 pts
~2.4 RP (regional)
Teams: 3648, 1799, 3354
Auto
40.4 24%
Teleop
100.1 59%
Endgame
30.2 18%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 57%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.9 · Blue 2.44
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score27.6pts
Blue projected score176.4pts
Red win probability14%
Event bonus sample196alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 57%, blue 65%
Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -148.8
- Score range
- -6–210
- Upset likelihood
- 14%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
278.4Season APEX452.8
16.4Auto40.4
8.6Teleop100.1
-3.8Endgame30.2
71Consistency35
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 11 | 16 |
| teleop | 17 | 86 |
| endgame | 19 | 34 |
| foul | 125 | 15 |
| total | 172 | 151 |
Result
Final score
172 – 151
Prediction missed · off by 84.9 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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