Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

272.91 – 230.41

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

181 – 316

Prediction missed · off by 88.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 471 ±12.8

2036Boulder Valley Black Knights

Season APEX 121.1Event APEX 44.59Rank 28Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3729The Raiders

Season APEX 103.5Event APEX 37.67Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1619Up-A-Creek Robotics

Season APEX 246.4Event APEX 190.65Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 496.8 ±15.9

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 129.39Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1339Angelbotics

Season APEX 138.5Event APEX 81.93Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9552Rambotics

Provisional

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 19.09Rank 44Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2036, 3729, 1619

/ 100 compat

Projected

272.9 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2036, 3729, 1619

Auto

41.9 16%

Teleop

171.4 64%

Endgame

52.8 20%

Strengths

· 1619 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 2486, 1339, 9552

/ 100 compat

Projected

230.4 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2486, 1339, 9552

Auto

68.5 31%

Teleop

107.4 49%

Endgame

43.5 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.06 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score272.9pts

Blue projected score230.4pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 42.5
Score range: 196–307
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 497 vs event baseline 186.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

471Season APEX496.8

41.9Auto68.5

171.4Teleop107.4

52.8Endgame43.5

14Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	101
teleop	90	152
endgame	18	58
foul	5	5
total	181	316

Result

Final score

181 – 316

Prediction missed · off by 88.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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