Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

79.09 – 52.85

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

168 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 84 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 318.9 ±19.7

2261Casa Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 88.7Event APEX 6.91Rank 20Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

22591/4 Twenties

Provisional

Season APEX 70Event APEX -16.39Rank 47Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

4068Bearbotics

Season APEX 160.2Event APEX 88.57Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 285.9 ±16.3

9585RobUL

Season APEX 104.4Event APEX 30.02Rank 34Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

4388Ridgebotics

Season APEX 104.7Event APEX 27.54Rank 54Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

10682Robo-Yotes

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX -4.71Rank 46Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2261, 2259, 4068

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.1 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2261, 2259, 4068

Auto

24.1 35%

Teleop

51.1 74%

Endgame

-6.0 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 9585, 4388, 10682

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.9 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9585, 4388, 10682

Auto

34.4 61%

Teleop

6.3 11%

Endgame

16.1 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score79.1pts

Blue projected score52.9pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26.2
Score range: 19–113
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 300 vs event baseline 187.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

318.9Season APEX285.9

24.1Auto34.4

51.1Teleop6.3

-6Endgame16.1

50Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	38
teleop	76	68
endgame	50	26
foul	5	0
total	168	132

Result

Final score

168 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 84 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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