Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

200.43 – 29.21

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

136 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 48.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 377.3 ±12.7

6652Tigres

Season APEX 150.4Event APEX 48.45Rank 17Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1339Angelbotics

Season APEX 138.5Event APEX 132.54Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5493SMAbotics

Season APEX 88.4Event APEX 19.44Rank 37Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 241.7 ±19.4

159Alpine Robotics

Season APEX 69.9Event APEX -4.47Rank 55Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

10686Central Park Nightbots

Provisional

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 10.97Rank 52Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

1822Electric Calamari

Provisional

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 22.71Rank 40Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6652, 1339, 5493

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.4 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 6652, 1339, 5493

Auto

49.2 28%

Teleop

79.8 45%

Endgame

47.4 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 159, 10686, 1822

/ 100 compat

Projected

29.2 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 159, 10686, 1822

Auto

11.6 41%

Teleop

4.5 16%

Endgame

12.5 44%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.48 · Blue 0.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score200.4pts

Blue projected score29.2pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 171.2
Score range: -9–238
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 197 vs event baseline 213.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

377.3Season APEX241.7

49.2Auto11.6

79.8Teleop4.5

47.4Endgame12.5

53Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	17
teleop	57	25
endgame	7	19
foul	15	0
total	136	61

Result

Final score

136 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 48.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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