Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

150.93 – 68.47

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

126 – 90

Prediction correct · off by 23.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 336.3 ±13.4

2465KauaiBots

Season APEX 90Event APEX 45.73Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6652Tigres

Season APEX 150.4Event APEX 45.57Rank 17Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2083Team Blitz

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 59.63Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 223.2 ±16

4418IMPULSE

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 48.22Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11025Garage Gang

Season APEX 55Event APEX 15.39Rank 39Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

1303WYOHAZARD

Provisional

Season APEX 68.7Event APEX 4.86Rank 43Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2465, 6652, 2083

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.9 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2465, 6652, 2083

Auto

50.2 33%

Teleop

55.3 36%

Endgame

46.5 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4418, 11025, 1303

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.5 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4418, 11025, 1303

Auto

26.8 37%

Teleop

34.5 48%

Endgame

10.8 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.18 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score150.9pts

Blue projected score68.5pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 82.5
Score range: 35–184
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 216 vs event baseline 185.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

336.3Season APEX223.2

50.2Auto26.8

55.3Teleop34.5

46.5Endgame10.8

38Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	39
teleop	81	18
endgame	24	28
foul	0	5
total	126	90

Result

Final score

126 – 90

Prediction correct · off by 23.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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