Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

186.15 – 82.68

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

174 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 36.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 347.5 ±13.9

1977The PowerSquids

Season APEX 103Event APEX 24.22Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

662Rocky Mountain Robotics

Season APEX 120.6Event APEX 47.64Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 95

7725PrepaTec - NUTS & VOLTS

Season APEX 123.9Event APEX 114.29Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 285.3 ±15.8

9585RobUL

Season APEX 104.4Event APEX 21.35Rank 34Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

3729The Raiders

Season APEX 103.5Event APEX 37.18Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5526Type C - Peñoles

Season APEX 77.4Event APEX 24.15Rank 45Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1977, 662, 7725

/ 100 compat

Projected

186.2 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 1977, 662, 7725

Auto

36.3 19%

Teleop

107.1 57%

Endgame

44.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9585, 3729, 5526

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.7 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9585, 3729, 5526

Auto

6.9 9%

Teleop

45.9 57%

Endgame

27.5 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.31 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score186.2pts

Blue projected score82.7pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 103.5
Score range: 50–219
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 318 vs event baseline 184.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

347.5Season APEX285.3

36.3Auto6.9

107.1Teleop45.9

44Endgame27.5

29Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	36
teleop	73	67
endgame	69	41
foul	0	0
total	174	144

Result

Final score

174 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 36.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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