Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

191.72 – 106.4

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

166 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 36.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 302.6 ±15

2945Steel Mustangs

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX 49.28Rank 36Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

9586Denbot

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 99.97Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3200Raptacon

Season APEX 75.1Event APEX 42.47Rank 38Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 285.7 ±13.9

2972Gears and Buccaneers

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 58.96Rank 49Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3807Overland BlazerBots

Season APEX 69.4Event APEX -12.37Rank 50Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

7485Mo Co Robo

Season APEX 99.7Event APEX 59.81Rank 51Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2945, 9586, 3200

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.7 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2945, 9586, 3200

Auto

43.2 25%

Teleop

89.9 51%

Endgame

43.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2972, 3807, 7485

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.4 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2972, 3807, 7485

Auto

6.8 7%

Teleop

52.8 51%

Endgame

43.9 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.13 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score191.7pts

Blue projected score106.4pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 85.3
Score range: 73–225
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 225 vs event baseline 183.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

302.6Season APEX285.7

43.2Auto6.8

89.9Teleop52.8

43Endgame43.9

92Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	26
teleop	90	10
endgame	37	18
foul	0	5
total	166	59

Result

Final score

166 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 36.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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