Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

248.21 – 212.68

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

230 – 164

Prediction correct · off by 33.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 503.1 ±16.6

2083Team Blitz

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 59.54Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

4499The Highlanders

A+

Season APEX 301.1Event APEX 190.52Rank 4Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1822Electric Calamari

Provisional

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX -1.85Rank 40Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 386.3 ±16.4

22591/4 Twenties

Provisional

Season APEX 70Event APEX 0.3Rank 47Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

1619Up-A-Creek Robotics

Season APEX 246.4Event APEX 200.7Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

159Alpine Robotics

Season APEX 69.9Event APEX 11.68Rank 55Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2083, 4499, 1822

/ 100 compat

Projected

248.2 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2083, 4499, 1822

Auto

61.6 26%

Teleop

122.6 52%

Endgame

53.4 22%

Strengths

· 4499 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2259, 1619, 159

/ 100 compat

Projected

212.7 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2259, 1619, 159

Auto

52.9 26%

Teleop

118.2 58%

Endgame

31.0 15%

Strengths

· 1619 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.98 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score248.2pts

Blue projected score212.7pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 35.5
Score range: 180–281
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 394 vs event baseline 183.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

503.1Season APEX386.3

61.6Auto52.9

122.6Teleop118.2

53.4Endgame31

37Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	54
teleop	131	92
endgame	66	18
foul	0	0
total	230	164

Result

Final score

230 – 164

Prediction correct · off by 33.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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