Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

225.84 – 320.58

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

252 – 137

Prediction missed · off by 104.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 453 ±15.6

1977The PowerSquids

Season APEX 103Event APEX 5.52Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9552Rambotics

Provisional

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 25.56Rank 44Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 194.76Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 511 ±12.4

8334Titan Robotics

Season APEX 75.3Event APEX 16.11Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9301PrepaTec - MechRams

Season APEX 134.6Event APEX 91.72Rank 22Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4499The Highlanders

A+

Season APEX 301.1Event APEX 212.75Rank 4Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1977, 9552, 118

/ 100 compat

Projected

225.8 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 1977, 9552, 118

Auto

42.2 18%

Teleop

128.5 55%

Endgame

62.8 27%

Strengths

· 118 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 4%

Blue · 8334, 9301, 4499

/ 100 compat

Projected

320.6 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 8334, 9301, 4499

Auto

62.6 20%

Teleop

179.7 57%

Endgame

71.6 23%

Strengths

· 4499 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 4%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.18 · Blue 2.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score225.8pts

Blue projected score320.6pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -94.7
Score range: 188–359
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 389 vs event baseline 213.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

453Season APEX511

42.2Auto62.6

128.5Teleop179.7

62.8Endgame71.6

49Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	33
teleop	139	57
endgame	68	47
foul	0	0
total	252	137

Result

Final score

252 – 137

Prediction missed · off by 104.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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