Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

78.38 – 215.89

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

49 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 24.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 325.8 ±15.6

2443Blue Thunder

Season APEX 160.1Event APEX 37.32Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7479Cardinal Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 61Event APEX -0.96Rank 48Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4388Ridgebotics

Season APEX 104.7Event APEX 42.02Rank 54Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 403.3 ±13.3

4418IMPULSE

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 52.59Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2240Brute Force

Season APEX 213.9Event APEX 148.04Rank 2Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6704Mid Pacific Owls Robotics

Season APEX 89.9Event APEX 15.26Rank 32Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2443, 7479, 4388

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.4 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2443, 7479, 4388

Auto

29.7 33%

Teleop

36.0 41%

Endgame

23.0 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4418, 2240, 6704

/ 100 compat

Projected

215.9 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4418, 2240, 6704

Auto

56.3 27%

Teleop

104.5 50%

Endgame

49.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.9 · Blue 2.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score78.4pts

Blue projected score215.9pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -137.5
Score range: 44–250
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 245 vs event baseline 186.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

325.8Season APEX403.3

29.7Auto56.3

36Teleop104.5

23Endgame49.7

57Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	0	6
teleop	21	166
endgame	28	24
foul	0	0
total	49	196

Result

Final score

49 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 24.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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