Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

107.22 – 327.14

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

45 – 313

Prediction correct · off by 38.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 353 ±16.8

7737RaptorBotics

Provisional

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX -11.78Rank 53Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

6652Tigres

Season APEX 150.4Event APEX 63.94Rank 17Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2036Boulder Valley Black Knights

Season APEX 121.1Event APEX 55.06Rank 28Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 522.8 ±11.6

2996Cougars Gone Wired

Season APEX 272.6Event APEX 187.41Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2465KauaiBots

Season APEX 90Event APEX 45.65Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4068Bearbotics

Season APEX 160.2Event APEX 94.08Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7737, 6652, 2036

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.2 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 7737, 6652, 2036

Auto

16.0 15%

Teleop

58.8 54%

Endgame

34.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 2996, 2465, 4068

/ 100 compat

Projected

327.1 pts

~2.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2996, 2465, 4068

Auto

53.8 17%

Teleop

198.4 62%

Endgame

68.3 21%

Strengths

· 2996 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.87 · Blue 2.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score107.2pts

Blue projected score327.1pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -219.9
Score range: 73–361
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 358 vs event baseline 186.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

353Season APEX522.8

16Auto53.8

58.8Teleop198.4

34.2Endgame68.3

91Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	82
teleop	14	168
endgame	0	63
foul	0	0
total	45	313

Result

Final score

45 – 313

Prediction correct · off by 38.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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