Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

175.42 – 155.11

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

118 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 50.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 293.2 ±12.8

10333Elevation

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 47.82Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

662Rocky Mountain Robotics

Season APEX 120.6Event APEX 64.56Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 95

11220The Royal Guard

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 63.04Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 332.9 ±17.2

1822Electric Calamari

Provisional

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 11.62Rank 40Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

1977The PowerSquids

Season APEX 103Event APEX 40.66Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9586Denbot

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 102.83Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10333, 662, 11220

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.4 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10333, 662, 11220

Auto

63.1 34%

Teleop

73.5 40%

Endgame

47.0 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1822, 1977, 9586

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1822, 1977, 9586

Auto

43.9 28%

Teleop

69.1 43%

Endgame

46.2 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.79 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score175.4pts

Blue projected score155.1pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20.3
Score range: 121–209
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 229 vs event baseline 186.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

293.2Season APEX332.9

63.1Auto43.9

73.5Teleop69.1

47Endgame46.2

29Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	23
teleop	48	88
endgame	40	0
foul	15	0
total	118	111

Result

Final score

118 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 50.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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