Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

153.73 – 275.45

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

182 – 269

Prediction correct · off by 17.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 304.1 ±12.7

4944The Hi Fives

Season APEX 127.2Event APEX 86.24Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4418IMPULSE

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 58.12Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5526Type C - Peñoles

Season APEX 77.4Event APEX 9.37Rank 45Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 526.5 ±12.2

6702PrepaTec - StingBots

Season APEX 129Event APEX 53.85Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3354PrepaTec - TecDroid

Season APEX 237.3Event APEX 110.27Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4068Bearbotics

Season APEX 160.2Event APEX 111.33Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4944, 4418, 5526

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.7 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4944, 4418, 5526

Auto

39.2 25%

Teleop

104.5 66%

Endgame

15.7 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 6702, 3354, 4068

/ 100 compat

Projected

275.5 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 6702, 3354, 4068

Auto

43.2 17%

Teleop

181.3 70%

Endgame

34.1 13%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.05 · Blue 2.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score153.7pts

Blue projected score275.5pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -121.7
Score range: 121–308
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 451 vs event baseline 181.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

304.1Season APEX526.5

39.2Auto43.2

104.5Teleop181.3

15.7Endgame34.1

17Consistency115

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	45
teleop	100	148
endgame	53	76
foul	5	0
total	182	269

Result

Final score

182 – 269

Prediction correct · off by 17.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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