Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

97.53 – 50.88

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

95 – 29

Prediction correct · off by 12.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 247.3 ±17

1303WYOHAZARD

Provisional

Season APEX 68.7Event APEX -5.72Rank 43Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3200Raptacon

Season APEX 75.1Event APEX 39.05Rank 38Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3729The Raiders

Season APEX 103.5Event APEX 64.2Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 263 ±13.9

159Alpine Robotics

Season APEX 69.9Event APEX 12.61Rank 55Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5493SMAbotics

Season APEX 88.4Event APEX 3.05Rank 37Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4388Ridgebotics

Season APEX 104.7Event APEX 35.22Rank 54Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1303, 3200, 3729

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.5 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 1303, 3200, 3729

Auto

2.7 3%

Teleop

61.0 68%

Endgame

25.8 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 159, 5493, 4388

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.9 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 159, 5493, 4388

Auto

24.4 44%

Teleop

26.4 48%

Endgame

4.4 8%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.88 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score97.5pts

Blue projected score50.9pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 46.7
Score range: 18–131
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 124 vs event baseline 184.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

247.3Season APEX263

2.7Auto24.4

61Teleop26.4

25.8Endgame4.4

46Consistency106

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	22
teleop	43	4
endgame	25	3
foul	5	0
total	95	29

Result

Final score

95 – 29

Prediction correct · off by 12.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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