Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

282.78 – 190.37

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

258 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 40.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 546.8 ±16.4

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 98.87Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2261Casa Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 88.7Event APEX 23.71Rank 20Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2240Brute Force

Season APEX 213.9Event APEX 160.2Rank 2Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 435.4 ±16.4

7737RaptorBotics

Provisional

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 11.83Rank 53Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2972Gears and Buccaneers

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 53.79Rank 49Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3354PrepaTec - TecDroid

Season APEX 237.3Event APEX 124.75Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2486, 2261, 2240

/ 100 compat

Projected

282.8 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2486, 2261, 2240

Auto

73.9 27%

Teleop

139.9 50%

Endgame

63.9 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7737, 2972, 3354

/ 100 compat

Projected

190.4 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 7737, 2972, 3354

Auto

24.7 13%

Teleop

114.9 60%

Endgame

52.0 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.33 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score282.8pts

Blue projected score190.4pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 92.4
Score range: 152–321
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 392 vs event baseline 213.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

546.8Season APEX435.4

73.9Auto24.7

139.9Teleop114.9

63.9Endgame52

61Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	30
teleop	115	104
endgame	54	0
foul	15	0
total	258	134

Result

Final score

258 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 40.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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