Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

15.15 – 81.28

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

34 – 124

Prediction correct · off by 30.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 299.5 ±16.4

3807Overland BlazerBots

Season APEX 69.4Event APEX -17.19Rank 50Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

22591/4 Twenties

Provisional

Season APEX 70Event APEX 5.14Rank 47Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2443Blue Thunder

Season APEX 160.1Event APEX 27.2Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 361.9 ±13.3

4293Komodo

Season APEX 136.2Event APEX 55.94Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

8334Titan Robotics

Season APEX 75.3Event APEX -39.19Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6652Tigres

Season APEX 150.4Event APEX 64.53Rank 17Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3807, 2259, 2443

/ 100 compat

Projected

15.2 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3807, 2259, 2443

Auto

20.8 100%

Teleop

5.9 53%

Endgame

-15.5 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4293, 8334, 6652

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.3 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4293, 8334, 6652

Auto

13.5 22%

Teleop

32.6 52%

Endgame

16.5 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.17 · Blue 2.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score15.2pts

Blue projected score81.3pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 79%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -66.1
Score range: -19–115
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 158 vs event baseline 187.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

299.5Season APEX361.9

20.8Auto13.5

5.9Teleop32.6

-15.5Endgame16.5

78Consistency148

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	27
teleop	13	62
endgame	12	35
foul	0	0
total	34	124

Result

Final score

34 – 124

Prediction correct · off by 30.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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