Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

398.94 – 70.23

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

610 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 115.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 817.9 ±9.8

4499The Highlanders

A+

Season APEX 301.1Event APEX 173.28Rank 4Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 77.41Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2996Cougars Gone Wired

Season APEX 272.6Event APEX 148.25Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 216.7 ±18.4

10686Central Park Nightbots

Provisional

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 11.55Rank 52Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

2465KauaiBots

Season APEX 90Event APEX 55.61Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7479Cardinal Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 61Event APEX 3.07Rank 48Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4499, 2486, 2996

/ 100 compat

Projected

398.9 pts

~2.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4499, 2486, 2996

Auto

106.8 28%

Teleop

217.4 57%

Endgame

56.2 15%

Strengths

· 4499 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 10686, 2465, 7479

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.2 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10686, 2465, 7479

Auto

8.8 13%

Teleop

22.5 34%

Endgame

35.2 53%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.86 · Blue 0.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score398.9pts

Blue projected score70.2pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 328.7
Score range: 37–432
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 660 vs event baseline 183.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

817.9Season APEX216.7

106.8Auto8.8

217.4Teleop22.5

56.2Endgame35.2

31Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	130	24
teleop	329	11
endgame	151	15
foul	0	0
total	610	50

Result

Final score

610 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 115.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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