Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

148.6 – 194.42

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

285 – 387

Prediction correct · off by 164.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 375 ±13.9

2972Gears and Buccaneers

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 45.64Rank 49Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9301PrepaTec - MechRams

Season APEX 134.6Event APEX 32.34Rank 22Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9586Denbot

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 70.62Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 441.8 ±12.9

1619Up-A-Creek Robotics

Season APEX 246.4Event APEX 142.31Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4418IMPULSE

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 16.7Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2083Team Blitz

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 35.41Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2972, 9301, 9586

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.6 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2972, 9301, 9586

Auto

34.2 22%

Teleop

109.9 69%

Endgame

14.3 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1619, 4418, 2083

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.4 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 1619, 4418, 2083

Auto

64.7 33%

Teleop

92.6 48%

Endgame

37.3 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.47 · Blue 2.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score148.6pts

Blue projected score194.4pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -45.8
Score range: 117–226
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 672 vs event baseline 175.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

375Season APEX441.8

34.2Auto64.7

109.9Teleop92.6

14.3Endgame37.3

56Consistency129

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	81
teleop	171	208
endgame	95	98
foul	0	0
total	285	387

Result

Final score

285 – 387

Prediction correct · off by 164.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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