Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

61.8 – 120.79

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

65 – 197

Prediction correct · off by 39.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 308.9 ±22.5

2261Casa Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 88.7Event APEX 29.83Rank 20Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

1822Electric Calamari

Provisional

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 11.21Rank 40Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9552Rambotics

Provisional

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 20.76Rank 44Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 292.2 ±13.9

6704Mid Pacific Owls Robotics

Season APEX 89.9Event APEX 21.57Rank 32Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4944The Hi Fives

Season APEX 127.2Event APEX 57.39Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3200Raptacon

Season APEX 75.1Event APEX 41.83Rank 38Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2261, 1822, 9552

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.8 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2261, 1822, 9552

Auto

19.9 31%

Teleop

4.9 8%

Endgame

39.5 61%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6704, 4944, 3200

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.8 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 6704, 4944, 3200

Auto

12.9 9%

Teleop

82.9 60%

Endgame

43.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.34 · Blue 2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score61.8pts

Blue projected score120.8pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -59
Score range: 30–153
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 262 vs event baseline 177.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

308.9Season APEX292.2

19.9Auto12.9

4.9Teleop82.9

39.5Endgame43.3

90Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	15
teleop	35	111
endgame	10	56
foul	0	15
total	65	197

Result

Final score

65 – 197

Prediction correct · off by 39.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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