Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

27.14 – 109.49

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

68 – 187

Prediction correct · off by 59.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 296.2 ±13.9

1410The Kraken

Season APEX 104.8Event APEX -6.92Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5493SMAbotics

Season APEX 88.4Event APEX 12.8Rank 37Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

1977The PowerSquids

Season APEX 103Event APEX 21.26Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 414.2 ±12.9

2443Blue Thunder

Season APEX 160.1Event APEX 26.35Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6652Tigres

Season APEX 150.4Event APEX 58.85Rank 17Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2945Steel Mustangs

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX 24.29Rank 36Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1410, 5493, 1977

/ 100 compat

Projected

27.1 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 1410, 5493, 1977

Auto

9.0 39%

Teleop

2.3 10%

Endgame

11.5 50%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2443, 6652, 2945

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.5 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2443, 6652, 2945

Auto

29.4 29%

Teleop

46.4 46%

Endgame

25.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.18 · Blue 2.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score27.1pts

Blue projected score109.5pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -82.3
Score range: -5–141
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 255 vs event baseline 178.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

296.2Season APEX414.2

9Auto29.4

2.3Teleop46.4

11.5Endgame25.4

118Consistency137

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	50
teleop	28	80
endgame	24	42
foul	0	15
total	68	187

Result

Final score

68 – 187

Prediction correct · off by 59.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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