Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

122.9 – 374.48

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

124 – 517

Prediction correct · off by 71.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 423 ±12.8

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 69.32Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8334Titan Robotics

Season APEX 75.3Event APEX -22.34Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3729The Raiders

Season APEX 103.5Event APEX 75.92Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 729.2 ±11.2

4293Komodo

Season APEX 136.2Event APEX 31.42Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4499The Highlanders

A+

Season APEX 301.1Event APEX 161.9Rank 4Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9068The Chargers

A+

Season APEX 291.9Event APEX 181.16Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2486, 8334, 3729

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.9 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2486, 8334, 3729

Auto

10.8 9%

Teleop

37.8 32%

Endgame

67.8 58%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 80%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4293, 4499, 9068

/ 100 compat

Projected

374.5 pts

~2.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4293, 4499, 9068

Auto

55.5 15%

Teleop

220.9 60%

Endgame

91.5 25%

Strengths

· 9068 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 80%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.93 · Blue 2.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score122.9pts

Blue projected score374.5pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 80%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -251.6
Score range: 90–407
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 641 vs event baseline 181.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

423Season APEX729.2

10.8Auto55.5

37.8Teleop220.9

67.8Endgame91.5

118Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	53
teleop	88	287
endgame	5	82
foul	0	95
total	124	517

Result

Final score

124 – 517

Prediction correct · off by 71.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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