Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

118.64 – 228.13

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

81 – 214

Prediction correct · off by 25.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 298.3 ±14.5

4388Ridgebotics

Season APEX 104.7Event APEX 28.18Rank 54Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

6704Mid Pacific Owls Robotics

Season APEX 89.9Event APEX 32.08Rank 32Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2945Steel Mustangs

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX 58.38Rank 36Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 424 ±14.7

10333Elevation

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 50.35Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1799Wired-Up!

Provisional

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX -3.18Rank 42Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

2996Cougars Gone Wired

Season APEX 272.6Event APEX 180.96Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4388, 6704, 2945

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.6 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4388, 6704, 2945

Auto

10.7 9%

Teleop

76.4 65%

Endgame

30.9 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10333, 1799, 2996

/ 100 compat

Projected

228.1 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10333, 1799, 2996

Auto

56.7 25%

Teleop

123.4 54%

Endgame

47.3 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.05 · Blue 2.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score118.6pts

Blue projected score228.1pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -109.5
Score range: 81–266
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 295 vs event baseline 213.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

298.3Season APEX424

10.7Auto56.7

76.4Teleop123.4

30.9Endgame47.3

110Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	77
teleop	37	82
endgame	23	55
foul	0	0
total	81	214

Result

Final score

81 – 214

Prediction correct · off by 25.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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