Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

382.63 – 94.2

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

436 – 27

Prediction correct · off by 60.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 629.6 ±10.4

2036Boulder Valley Black Knights

Season APEX 121.1Event APEX 64.08Rank 28Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 201.24Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2996Cougars Gone Wired

Season APEX 272.6Event APEX 117.31Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 216.1 ±19.4

1303WYOHAZARD

Provisional

Season APEX 68.7Event APEX 25.63Rank 43Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5526Type C - Peñoles

Season APEX 77.4Event APEX 21.56Rank 45Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

22591/4 Twenties

Provisional

Season APEX 70Event APEX 47.01Rank 47Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2036, 118, 2996

/ 100 compat

Projected

382.6 pts

~2.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2036, 118, 2996

Auto

71.7 18%

Teleop

233.1 60%

Endgame

85.0 22%

Strengths

· 118 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 9%

Blue · 1303, 5526, 2259

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.2 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1303, 5526, 2259

Auto

33.4 39%

Teleop

64.6 76%

Endgame

-12.5 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 9%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.92 · Blue 0.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score382.6pts

Blue projected score94.2pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 74%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 9%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 288.4
Score range: 62–415
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 463 vs event baseline 179.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

629.6Season APEX216.1

71.7Auto33.4

233.1Teleop64.6

85Endgame-12.5

138Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	17
teleop	266	3
endgame	133	7
foul	0	0
total	436	27

Result

Final score

436 – 27

Prediction correct · off by 60.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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