Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

92.9 – 100.09

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

198 – 264

Prediction correct · off by 134.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 440.2 ±16.4

7421PrepaTec - OVERTURE

Season APEX 205.1Event APEX 91.82Rank 12Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1822Electric Calamari

Provisional

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX -2.52Rank 40Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

6702PrepaTec - StingBots

Season APEX 129Event APEX 3.6Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 399.5 ±13.3

4068Bearbotics

Season APEX 160.2Event APEX 81.15Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9301PrepaTec - MechRams

Season APEX 134.6Event APEX -1.9Rank 22Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4388Ridgebotics

Season APEX 104.7Event APEX 20.84Rank 54Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7421, 1822, 6702

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.9 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 7421, 1822, 6702

Auto

14.8 16%

Teleop

53.7 57%

Endgame

25.1 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4068, 9301, 4388

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.1 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4068, 9301, 4388

Auto

4.7 5%

Teleop

71.0 75%

Endgame

18.4 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score92.9pts

Blue projected score100.1pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -7.2
Score range: 61–132
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 462 vs event baseline 177.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

440.2Season APEX399.5

14.8Auto4.7

53.7Teleop71

25.1Endgame18.4

32Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	42
teleop	94	175
endgame	63	47
foul	10	0
total	198	264

Result

Final score

198 – 264

Prediction correct · off by 134.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree