Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

98.97 – 50.69

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

45 – 131

Prediction missed · off by 67.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 251.8 ±16.6

1799Wired-Up!

Provisional

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 40.13Rank 42Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

3200Raptacon

Season APEX 75.1Event APEX 27.72Rank 38Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4418IMPULSE

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 31.12Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 296.5 ±13.3

11025Garage Gang

Season APEX 55Event APEX 13.59Rank 39Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

1339Angelbotics

Season APEX 138.5Event APEX 23.57Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1977The PowerSquids

Season APEX 103Event APEX 13.53Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1799, 3200, 4418

/ 100 compat

Projected

99 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 1799, 3200, 4418

Auto

35.4 37%

Teleop

30.0 32%

Endgame

29.7 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 11025, 1339, 1977

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.7 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 11025, 1339, 1977

Auto

14.5 38%

Teleop

24.7 64%

Endgame

-0.6 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.97 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score99pts

Blue projected score50.7pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 48.3
Score range: 19–131
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 176 vs event baseline 176.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

251.8Season APEX296.5

35.4Auto14.5

30Teleop24.7

29.7Endgame-0.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	48
teleop	25	63
endgame	12	5
foul	0	15
total	45	131

Result

Final score

45 – 131

Prediction missed · off by 67.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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