Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

129.73 – 236.47

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

92 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 78.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 370.1 ±16.9

9552Rambotics

Provisional

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 23.55Rank 44Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2443Blue Thunder

Season APEX 160.1Event APEX 48.14Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2083Team Blitz

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 58.04Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 290 ±17

662Rocky Mountain Robotics

Season APEX 120.6Event APEX 100.77Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2945Steel Mustangs

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX 59.56Rank 36Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

10686Central Park Nightbots

Provisional

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 76.14Rank 52Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9552, 2443, 2083

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.7 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9552, 2443, 2083

Auto

17.9 13%

Teleop

70.4 53%

Endgame

44.7 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 662, 2945, 10686

/ 100 compat

Projected

236.5 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 662, 2945, 10686

Auto

42.6 18%

Teleop

137.4 59%

Endgame

53.1 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.04 · Blue 2.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score129.7pts

Blue projected score236.5pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -106.7
Score range: 98–268
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 209 vs event baseline 180.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

370.1Season APEX290

17.9Auto42.6

70.4Teleop137.4

44.7Endgame53.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	27
teleop	47	48
endgame	9	22
foul	0	20
total	92	117

Result

Final score

92 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 78.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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