Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

134.68 – 219.38

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

313 – 205

Prediction missed · off by 96.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 460.3 ±16.4

11220The Royal Guard

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX -18.43Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9068The Chargers

A+

Season APEX 291.9Event APEX 126.84Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

22591/4 Twenties

Provisional

Season APEX 70Event APEX 26.27Rank 47Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 449.7 ±16.4

2996Cougars Gone Wired

Season APEX 272.6Event APEX 124.93Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5493SMAbotics

Season APEX 88.4Event APEX 56.83Rank 37Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2261Casa Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 88.7Event APEX 37.62Rank 20Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11220, 9068, 2259

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.7 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 11220, 9068, 2259

Auto

3.1 2%

Teleop

96.3 71%

Endgame

35.4 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2996, 5493, 2261

/ 100 compat

Projected

219.4 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2996, 5493, 2261

Auto

67.4 31%

Teleop

107.4 50%

Endgame

41.6 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.2 · Blue 2.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score134.7pts

Blue projected score219.4pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -84.7
Score range: 102–252
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 518 vs event baseline 180.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

460.3Season APEX449.7

3.1Auto67.4

96.3Teleop107.4

35.4Endgame41.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	48
teleop	164	117
endgame	86	40
foul	15	0
total	313	205

Result

Final score

313 – 205

Prediction missed · off by 96.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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