Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

142.48 – 74.23

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

307 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 95.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 516.8 ±12.4

5526Type C - Peñoles

Season APEX 77.4Event APEX 9.51Rank 45Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3648Sparta Robotica

Season APEX 138.3Event APEX 25.6Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4499The Highlanders

A+

Season APEX 301.1Event APEX 107.37Rank 4Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 322.4 ±17.2

4388Ridgebotics

Season APEX 104.7Event APEX 13.6Rank 54Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4293Komodo

Season APEX 136.2Event APEX 50.99Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

7737RaptorBotics

Provisional

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 9.64Rank 53Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5526, 3648, 4499

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.5 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 5526, 3648, 4499

Auto

39.4 28%

Teleop

67.7 47%

Endgame

35.9 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4388, 4293, 7737

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.2 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4388, 4293, 7737

Auto

16.7 23%

Teleop

56.4 79%

Endgame

-1.9 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.14 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score142.5pts

Blue projected score74.2pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 68.2
Score range: 42–174
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 408 vs event baseline 179.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

516.8Season APEX322.4

39.4Auto16.7

67.7Teleop56.4

35.9Endgame-1.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	85	8
teleop	193	67
endgame	29	26
foul	0	0
total	307	101

Result

Final score

307 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 95.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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