Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

140.69 – 179.21

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

229 – 107

Prediction missed · off by 80.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 398 ±15.6

7485Mo Co Robo

Season APEX 99.7Event APEX 52.3Rank 51Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3354PrepaTec - TecDroid

Season APEX 237.3Event APEX 75.41Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7479Cardinal Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 61Event APEX 12.98Rank 48Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 270.6 ±12.8

8334Titan Robotics

Season APEX 75.3Event APEX 28.49Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2036Boulder Valley Black Knights

Season APEX 121.1Event APEX 95.21Rank 28Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

10333Elevation

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 55.51Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7485, 3354, 7479

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.7 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7485, 3354, 7479

Auto

23.3 17%

Teleop

68.0 49%

Endgame

47.0 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8334, 2036, 10333

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.2 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 8334, 2036, 10333

Auto

36.0 20%

Teleop

88.3 48%

Endgame

57.8 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.45 · Blue 2.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score140.7pts

Blue projected score179.2pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -38.5
Score range: 109–211
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 336 vs event baseline 180.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

398Season APEX270.6

23.3Auto36

68Teleop88.3

47Endgame57.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	33
teleop	123	34
endgame	71	40
foul	0	0
total	229	107

Result

Final score

229 – 107

Prediction missed · off by 80.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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