Qualification · Qualification 2
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
99.91 – 78.54
57%43%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
29 – 32
Prediction missed · off by 58.7 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 263.1 ±17.7
Season APEX 90Event APEX 34.43Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 104.4Event APEX 56.69Rank 34Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76
1303WYOHAZARD
Provisional
Season APEX 68.7Event APEX 8.79Rank 43Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 245.2 ±13.9
Season APEX 69.4Event APEX -5Rank 50Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94
Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 48.13Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 77.4Event APEX 35.41Rank 45Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2465, 9585, 1303
37
/ 100 compatProjected
99.9 pts
~1.7 RP (regional)
Teams: 2465, 9585, 1303
Auto
30.2 34%
Teleop
32.9 37%
Endgame
26.2 29%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 53%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3807, 11220, 5526
35
/ 100 compatProjected
78.5 pts
~1.5 RP (regional)
Teams: 3807, 11220, 5526
Auto
29.1 40%
Teleop
25.4 35%
Endgame
18.7 26%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 53%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.48
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score99.9pts
Blue projected score78.5pts
Red win probability57%
Event bonus sample196alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 53%, blue 56%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 21.4
- Score range
- 41–138
- Upset likelihood
- 43%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
263.1Season APEX245.2
30.2Auto29.1
32.9Teleop25.4
26.2Endgame18.7
23Consistency56
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 10 | 13 |
| teleop | 6 | 14 |
| endgame | 13 | 5 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 29 | 32 |
Result
Final score
29 – 32
Prediction missed · off by 58.7 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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