Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

112.02 – 237.01

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

127 – 358

Prediction correct · off by 68 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 388.7 ±13.5

3807Overland BlazerBots

Season APEX 69.4Event APEX 44.4Rank 50Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3200Raptacon

Season APEX 75.1Event APEX 10.62Rank 38Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 57Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 495.6 ±10.3

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 173.8Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4068Bearbotics

Season APEX 160.2Event APEX 57.99Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4418IMPULSE

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 5.22Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3807, 3200, 2486

/ 100 compat

Projected

112 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3807, 3200, 2486

Auto

16.1 14%

Teleop

53.7 48%

Endgame

42.1 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 118, 4068, 4418

/ 100 compat

Projected

237 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 118, 4068, 4418

Auto

35.5 15%

Teleop

141.4 61%

Endgame

54.1 23%

Strengths

· 118 anchors offense

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.01 · Blue 2.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score112pts

Blue projected score237pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 8%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -125
Score range: 80–269
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 485 vs event baseline 178.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

388.7Season APEX495.6

16.1Auto35.5

53.7Teleop141.4

42.1Endgame54.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	75
teleop	45	217
endgame	45	61
foul	0	5
total	127	358

Result

Final score

127 – 358

Prediction correct · off by 68 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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