Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

70.71 – 171.37

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

250 – 197

Prediction missed · off by 102.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 402 ±15.6

1619Up-A-Creek Robotics

Season APEX 246.4Event APEX 63.83Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6704Mid Pacific Owls Robotics

Season APEX 89.9Event APEX -2.54Rank 32Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10686Central Park Nightbots

Provisional

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 9.42Rank 52Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 402.5 ±13.5

662Rocky Mountain Robotics

Season APEX 120.6Event APEX 102.61Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 95

10682Robo-Yotes

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX 14.95Rank 46Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

7421PrepaTec - OVERTURE

Season APEX 205.1Event APEX 53.81Rank 12Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1619, 6704, 10686

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.7 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 1619, 6704, 10686

Auto

42.5 64%

Teleop

40.3 61%

Endgame

-16.3 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 662, 10682, 7421

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.4 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 662, 10682, 7421

Auto

28.4 17%

Teleop

127.1 74%

Endgame

16.3 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.02 · Blue 2.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score70.7pts

Blue projected score171.4pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -100.7
Score range: 39–203
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 447 vs event baseline 175.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

402Season APEX402.5

42.5Auto28.4

40.3Teleop127.1

-16.3Endgame16.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	61
teleop	139	99
endgame	68	22
foul	10	15
total	250	197

Result

Final score

250 – 197

Prediction missed · off by 102.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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