Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

57.85 – 211.88

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

223 – 188

Prediction missed · off by 94.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 477.2 ±16.4

2996Cougars Gone Wired

Season APEX 272.6Event APEX 63.47Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

22591/4 Twenties

Provisional

Season APEX 70Event APEX 0.74Rank 47Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9301PrepaTec - MechRams

Season APEX 134.6Event APEX -6.36Rank 22Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 390.8 ±12.2

2443Blue Thunder

Season APEX 160.1Event APEX 51.08Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3729The Raiders

Season APEX 103.5Event APEX 60.54Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4944The Hi Fives

Season APEX 127.2Event APEX 100.26Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2996, 2259, 9301

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.9 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2996, 2259, 9301

Auto

33.7 55%

Teleop

15.3 25%

Endgame

11.9 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 2443, 3729, 4944

/ 100 compat

Projected

211.9 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2443, 3729, 4944

Auto

26.2 12%

Teleop

149.0 70%

Endgame

37.9 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.04 · Blue 2.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score57.9pts

Blue projected score211.9pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -154
Score range: 27–243
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 411 vs event baseline 173.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

477.2Season APEX390.8

33.7Auto26.2

15.3Teleop149

11.9Endgame37.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	21
teleop	156	113
endgame	25	54
foul	0	0
total	223	188

Result

Final score

223 – 188

Prediction missed · off by 94.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree