Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

43.05 – 13.04

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

34 – 74

Prediction missed · off by 35 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 300.4 ±20

9552Rambotics

Provisional

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 23.05Rank 44Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

1410The Kraken

Season APEX 104.8Event APEX 12.58Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7737RaptorBotics

Provisional

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 7.42Rank 53Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 241.8 ±13.9

11025Garage Gang

Season APEX 55Event APEX -2.14Rank 39Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

11220The Royal Guard

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX -13.88Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5493SMAbotics

Season APEX 88.4Event APEX 29.06Rank 37Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9552, 1410, 7737

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.1 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9552, 1410, 7737

Auto

24.3 58%

Teleop

22.2 53%

Endgame

-4.7 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11025, 11220, 5493

/ 100 compat

Projected

13 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 11025, 11220, 5493

Auto

29.9 100%

Teleop

-1.9 0%

Endgame

-16.2 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.81 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score43.1pts

Blue projected score13pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30
Score range: -20–76
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 108 vs event baseline 181.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

300.4Season APEX241.8

24.3Auto29.9

22.2Teleop-1.9

-4.7Endgame-16.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	13
teleop	13	36
endgame	6	25
foul	0	0
total	34	74

Result

Final score

34 – 74

Prediction missed · off by 35 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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