Qualification · Qualification 14
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
57.62 – 86.81
41%59%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
149 – 169
Prediction correct · off by 86.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 304 ±13.9
Season APEX 75.3Event APEX 9.62Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 129Event APEX 24Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94
Season APEX 99.7Event APEX 24Rank 51Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 377.4 ±16.8
Season APEX 150.4Event APEX 41.25Rank 17Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 138.3Event APEX 24Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
2261Casa Robotics
Provisional
Season APEX 88.7Event APEX 21.56Rank 20Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 71
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 8334, 6702, 7485
38
/ 100 compatProjected
57.6 pts
~1.6 RP (regional)
Teams: 8334, 6702, 7485
Auto
14.5 25%
Teleop
20.7 36%
Endgame
22.9 39%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 75%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6652, 3648, 2261
38
/ 100 compatProjected
86.8 pts
~1.9 RP (regional)
Teams: 6652, 3648, 2261
Auto
41.7 52%
Teleop
34.5 43%
Endgame
3.4 4%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 75%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.92
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score57.6pts
Blue projected score86.8pts
Red win probability41%
Event bonus sample196alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 75%, blue 69%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -29.2
- Score range
- 25–120
- Upset likelihood
- 41%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
304Season APEX377.4
14.5Auto41.7
20.7Teleop34.5
22.9Endgame3.4
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 19 | 40 |
| teleop | 82 | 66 |
| endgame | 48 | 63 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 149 | 169 |
Result
Final score
149 – 169
Prediction correct · off by 86.8 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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