Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

133.36 – 145.71

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

105 – 478

Prediction correct · off by 180.3 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 280.3 ±12.8

4293Komodo

Season APEX 136.2Event APEX 54.79Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

159Alpine Robotics

Season APEX 69.9Event APEX 17.43Rank 55Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

10333Elevation

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 61.14Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 539.8 ±11

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 71.27Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2240Brute Force

Season APEX 213.9Event APEX 66.15Rank 2Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2465KauaiBots

Season APEX 90Event APEX 8.29Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4293, 159, 10333

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.4 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4293, 159, 10333

Auto

29.9 23%

Teleop

70.1 53%

Endgame

31.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 118, 2240, 2465

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.7 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 118, 2240, 2465

Auto

38.7 27%

Teleop

71.1 50%

Endgame

31.2 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score133.4pts

Blue projected score145.7pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -12.3
Score range: 102–177
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 583 vs event baseline 171.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

280.3Season APEX539.8

29.9Auto38.7

70.1Teleop71.1

31.2Endgame31.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	77
teleop	59	276
endgame	28	125
foul	5	0
total	105	478

Result

Final score

105 – 478

Prediction correct · off by 180.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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