Qualification · Qualification 10
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
196.12 – 70.57
83%17%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
335 – 205
Prediction correct · off by 136.7 points
Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 456.3 ±12.8
Season APEX 103.5Event APEX -Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 123.9Event APEX 71.71Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 228.9Event APEX 97.43Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 410.4 ±13.5
Season APEX 237.3Event APEX 38.29Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 103.7Event APEX 23.14Rank 36Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92
Season APEX 69.4Event APEX 9.14Rank 50Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3729, 7725, 4593
74
/ 100 compatProjected
196.1 pts
~2.4 RP (regional)
Teams: 3729, 7725, 4593
Auto
39.0 20%
Teleop
122.1 64%
Endgame
29.4 15%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 68%
Supercharged: 5%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3354, 2945, 3807
43
/ 100 compatProjected
70.6 pts
~1.0 RP (regional)
Teams: 3354, 2945, 3807
Auto
18.3 26%
Teleop
44.3 63%
Endgame
8.0 11%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 68%
Supercharged: 5%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.4 · Blue 0.97
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score196.1pts
Blue projected score70.6pts
Red win probability83%
Event bonus sample196alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 68%, blue 57%
Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 125.6
- Score range
- 42–225
- Upset likelihood
- 17%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
456.3Season APEX410.4
30.9Auto18.3
108.6Teleop44.3
24Endgame8
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 42 | 29 |
| teleop | 207 | 121 |
| endgame | 86 | 55 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 335 | 205 |
Result
Final score
335 – 205
Prediction correct · off by 136.7 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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