Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

477.83 – 425.38

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

434 – 383

Prediction correct · off by 43.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 697.1 ±8.4

2443Blue Thunder

Season APEX 160.1Event APEX 66.59Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4499The Highlanders

A+

Season APEX 301.1Event APEX 214.51Rank 4Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 196.73Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 665.5 ±11

4944The Hi Fives

Season APEX 127.2Event APEX 65.09Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9068The Chargers

A+

Season APEX 291.9Event APEX 208.6Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1619Up-A-Creek Robotics

Season APEX 246.4Event APEX 151.69Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2443, 4499, 118

/ 100 compat

Projected

477.8 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2443, 4499, 118

Auto

82.7 17%

Teleop

265.6 56%

Endgame

125.8 27%

Strengths

· 4499 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 4%

Blue · 4944, 9068, 1619

/ 100 compat

Projected

425.4 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4944, 9068, 1619

Auto

64.4 15%

Teleop

241.4 58%

Endgame

110.8 27%

Strengths

· 9068 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 4%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.02 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score477.8pts

Blue projected score425.4pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 52.4
Score range: 387–516
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 817 vs event baseline 211.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

697.1Season APEX665.5

82.7Auto64.4

265.6Teleop241.4

125.8Endgame110.8

1Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	89
teleop	232	170
endgame	109	94
foul	30	30
total	434	383

Result

Final score

434 – 383

Prediction correct · off by 43.1 pts

Match videos

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