Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

375.91 – 351.57

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

358 – 359

Prediction missed · off by 12.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 642.2 ±14.7

6766AtomStorm

Season APEX 226.7Event APEX 147.33Rank 6Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11328SIA

Provisional

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 70.93Rank 23Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6907The G.O.A.T

Season APEX 242.6Event APEX 157.65Rank 19Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 591.8 ±15.8

6706Golem

Season APEX 136Event APEX 137.19Rank 15Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

11118The Baybies

A+

Season APEX 308.5Event APEX 96.1Rank 17Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

8011Wayi Guangzhou

Season APEX 147.3Event APEX 118.28Rank 11Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6766, 11328, 6907

/ 100 compat

Projected

375.9 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 6766, 11328, 6907

Auto

73.8 20%

Teleop

218.9 60%

Endgame

73.4 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6706, 11118, 8011

/ 100 compat

Projected

351.6 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 6706, 11118, 8011

Auto

57.3 17%

Teleop

203.9 59%

Endgame

84.3 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.79 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score375.9pts

Blue projected score351.6pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24.3
Score range: 315–413
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 717 vs event baseline 207.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

642.2Season APEX591.8

73.8Auto57.3

218.9Teleop203.9

73.4Endgame84.3

29Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	46
teleop	168	226
endgame	60	77
foul	60	10
total	358	359

Result

Final score

358 – 359

Prediction missed · off by 12.7 pts

Match videos

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