Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

118.47 – 237.44

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

143 – 364

Prediction correct · off by 75.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 427 ±20.5

6494Wings of Liberty

Provisional

Season APEX 125.1Event APEX 42.43Rank 16Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

6433HZ4Z

Provisional

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 0.09Rank 12Record 5-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

6940Violet Z

Season APEX 206.2Event APEX 75.95Rank 14Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 450.7 ±13.3

10711FORMSHOP

Season APEX 144.1Event APEX 54.43Rank 7Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6487Clockwork Knights

Season APEX 187.2Event APEX 96.46Rank 8Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5823ACE

Season APEX 119.4Event APEX 86.55Rank 30Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6494, 6433, 6940

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.5 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6494, 6433, 6940

Auto

39.8 33%

Teleop

63.2 53%

Endgame

17.3 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10711, 6487, 5823

/ 100 compat

Projected

237.4 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10711, 6487, 5823

Auto

42.7 19%

Teleop

132.1 58%

Endgame

54.0 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.09 · Blue 2.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score118.5pts

Blue projected score237.4pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -119
Score range: 82–273
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 507 vs event baseline 198.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

427Season APEX450.7

39.8Auto42.7

63.2Teleop132.1

17.3Endgame54

47Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	43
teleop	60	184
endgame	19	92
foul	15	45
total	143	364

Result

Final score

143 – 364

Prediction correct · off by 75.5 pts

Match videos

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