Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

245.77 – 341.23

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

158 – 416

Prediction correct · off by 81.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 568.2 ±19.3

5449Prototype

Provisional

Season APEX 127.6Event APEX 65.45Rank 18Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10131Royal Turtles

Season APEX 278.4Event APEX 61.95Rank 4Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10541CarbonPulse Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 162.2Event APEX 118.37Rank 10Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 473 ±18

6986PPT Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 133.1Event APEX 94.13Rank 13Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

11019X.PLORE

Season APEX 189.5Event APEX 122.34Rank 9Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8810The Alphabots

Provisional

Season APEX 150.4Event APEX 124.76Rank 21Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5449, 10131, 10541

/ 100 compat

Projected

245.8 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 5449, 10131, 10541

Auto

33.5 14%

Teleop

133.6 55%

Endgame

77.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6986, 11019, 8810

/ 100 compat

Projected

341.2 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 6986, 11019, 8810

Auto

43.4 13%

Teleop

207.0 61%

Endgame

87.0 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.25 · Blue 2.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score245.8pts

Blue projected score341.2pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -95.5
Score range: 211–376
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 574 vs event baseline 196.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

568.2Season APEX473

33.5Auto43.4

133.6Teleop207

77.2Endgame87

67Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	94
teleop	75	242
endgame	3	75
foul	10	5
total	158	416

Result

Final score

158 – 416

Prediction correct · off by 81.3 pts

Match videos

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