Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

272.63 – 290.67

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

463 – 438

Prediction missed · off by 168.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 735.5 ±13.3

9597Luban Robotics

A+

Season APEX 324.6Event APEX 133.25Rank 3Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 95

8806Our Lady of Providence Dream League

Season APEX 121.4Event APEX 39.21Rank 39Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9635Cyber Rabbit

Season APEX 289.5Event APEX 100.17Rank 5Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 591.8 ±15.8

6706Golem

Season APEX 136Event APEX 114.9Rank 15Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

11118The Baybies

A+

Season APEX 308.5Event APEX 79.65Rank 17Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

8011Wayi Guangzhou

Season APEX 147.3Event APEX 96.12Rank 11Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9597, 8806, 9635

/ 100 compat

Projected

272.6 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9597, 8806, 9635

Auto

69.7 26%

Teleop

151.7 56%

Endgame

49.1 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6706, 11118, 8011

/ 100 compat

Projected

290.7 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 6706, 11118, 8011

Auto

45.7 16%

Teleop

182.3 63%

Endgame

59.2 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score272.6pts

Blue projected score290.7pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18
Score range: 238–326
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 901 vs event baseline 192.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

735.5Season APEX591.8

69.7Auto45.7

151.7Teleop182.3

49.1Endgame59.2

53Consistency99

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	114	75
teleop	258	233
endgame	86	130
foul	5	0
total	463	438

Result

Final score

463 – 438

Prediction missed · off by 168.9 pts

Match videos

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