Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

356.61 – 353.03

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

304 – 364

Prediction missed · off by 31.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 473 ±18

6986PPT Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 133.1Event APEX 102.09Rank 13Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

11019X.PLORE

Season APEX 189.5Event APEX 125.45Rank 9Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8810The Alphabots

Provisional

Season APEX 150.4Event APEX 129.07Rank 21Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 591.8 ±15.8

6706Golem

Season APEX 136Event APEX 138.84Rank 15Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

11118The Baybies

A+

Season APEX 308.5Event APEX 96.96Rank 17Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

8011Wayi Guangzhou

Season APEX 147.3Event APEX 117.23Rank 11Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6986, 11019, 8810

/ 100 compat

Projected

356.6 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 6986, 11019, 8810

Auto

60.1 17%

Teleop

197.7 57%

Endgame

90.3 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6706, 11118, 8011

/ 100 compat

Projected

353 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 6706, 11118, 8011

Auto

55.2 16%

Teleop

208.1 60%

Endgame

82.9 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score356.6pts

Blue projected score353pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 3.6
Score range: 315–395
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 668 vs event baseline 213.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

473Season APEX591.8

60.1Auto55.2

197.7Teleop208.1

90.3Endgame82.9

20Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	53
teleop	161	234
endgame	87	67
foul	5	10
total	304	364

Result

Final score

304 – 364

Prediction missed · off by 31.8 pts

Match videos

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